California's non-partisan adviser to the legislature has concluded that state revenues are likely to exceed earlier estimates by as much as a cumulative $11.5 billion over the period from 2004-2005 through the end of the 2006-2007 fiscal year.
Legislative Analyst Elizabeth Hill also told reporters on February 23 during a Capitol briefing that a rise in a federal inflation index is expected to boost the statutory Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) for public education from the 5.15% included in Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's proposed budget to as much as 5.80%. She said a final COLA number will be known in April.
That COLA increase could bring another $300 million or more into the baseline budgets for K-12 public schools and the state's community colleges, Hill figures.
During two days of briefings for reporters - beginning with a February 22 address to the Sacramento Press Club - Hill announced that her forecasts show the state securing $1.3 billion in additional unanticipated revenues in 2005-2006 and another $1 billion above earlier estimates in 2006-2007.
Hill's statements came as part of the Legislative Analyst Office's annual analysis of the governor's January budget proposal. Lawmakers will hear from Hill during the months ahead as budget hearings take place.
Budget action will gear up in the spring following the governor's release of his revised budget proposals. Based on updated estimates of revenues and expenditures, the "May Revision" will become the basis for renewed legislative deliberations.
Lawmakers will be working against a June 15 constitutional deadline for sending a final budget bill to the governor for his action. The constitution gives the governor until June 30 to sign the measure into law. The enacted budget is set to take effect on July 1, the start of the new fiscal year.
While the state Constitution sets the deadline, it provides no penalties in case the deadlines are missed.