Approximately half the state’s school districts are facing declining enrollment. So it seems logical to ask: Won’t this offset the teacher shortage?
Declining enrollment will likely have little impact on the overall teacher shortage in California, since huge numbers of baby boomers are retiring and turnover among new teachers will likely continue.
But declining numbers are cause for concern in many districts, which is why CTA is tackling the issue on several fronts, says Dom Summa, manager of CTA Negotiations and Organizational Development.
CTA-supported legislation that would have allowed districts to calculate the loss in Average Daily Attendance (ADA) over a three-year period rather than a single year would have helped districts suddenly impacted by a drop-off in the number of students. The legislation won the Legislature’s approval, but was vetoed by the governor.
“Now, we’re trying to shift state funding so that it is enrollment-based rather than attendance-based,” says Rick McClure, chair of CTA’s Financing Public Education Committee. “That way, if you have 25 students in a class and five are out sick, you will still receive funding for 25 students on that day.”
“We’ve had only one year of declining enrollment and are projecting a possible second year,” said Peggy Morgan, president of the El Monte Union Educators Association, at a workshop on the subject during CTA’s Presidents Conference last summer. “Our district always looks at cutting teachers as a way of dealing with declining enrollment. And in every presentation by our assistant superintendent of business, he talks about how many teachers our district will have to lose based on the number of students we lose. They never talk about cutting administrators.”
In other districts, declining enrollment may be a non-issue. For example, Long Beach is losing 1,000 to 1,200 students a year, but huge numbers of teachers are retiring. The district has closed almost 100 classrooms over the past few years, but has still hired many new teachers, say representatives of the Teachers Association of Long Beach.
Similarly, the Los Angeles Unified School District is losing students, but new teachers are hired every year.
Even with declining enrollment in half the state’s school districts, fewer reduction-in-force (RIF) notices were issued last March 15 than during the previous three years, says Summa. And most were rescinded due to retirement and attrition.
Enrollment has been declining in California’s coastal communities, says Summa, because high housing costs have prompted residents to move “inland” to less expensive areas. Rural communities have also lost significant numbers of students as jobs have dried up within the timber industry. And in other districts, charter schools have taken students away.
While the number of students within the state is not estimated to grow significantly in the near future, immigration has helped to offset the decline in birth rates. Predictions are that enrollment will increase within three years — coinciding with the time when many experienced teachers will retire or leave the profession, says Summa.
Those seeking teaching jobs now may have better luck in growth areas — such as Inland Empire, Riverside County and San Bernardino County — rather than coastal districts or rural areas where enrollment is plummeting.
In some districts, administrators may use the term “declining enrollment” inaccurately — sometimes to instill fear in employees.
“My district has been experiencing burgeoning growth, but appears to have hit a plateau,” says Sam Lucero, president of the Sweetwater Education Association. “My district has been interpreting this as declining enrollment, but it may just be declining growth.”
When a district gains new students, costs tend to be marginal. When a district loses students, there is less money to go around, but the same costs are likely to be incurred. And closing a school may not offer an easy solution. For example, if a district loses 50 students in one year, they are likely to be spread throughout several school sites and grade levels. And in most cases, the overhead for operating buildings will remain the same despite having fewer students.
