Anti-Prop. 30 Ads Hurting Chances, but Not Helping Prop. 38, Pollsters Suggest
A newly released poll of 830 voters has led its technical leaders to conclude that ads by the Proposition 38 campaign and its primary sponsor, Attorney Molly Munger, are harming Proposition 30 -- the revenue measure sponsored by Gov. Jerry Brown -- widthout materially improving the rival school funding initiative that is also on the November 6 ballot.
Should the negative advertising lead voters to reject Proposition 30, it would cost public education more than $6 billion, the amount to be pared from K-14 public education and the state universities by automatic or "trigger cuts" included in contingency language in the already passed state budget.
Topline results released Thursday morning by the California Business Roundtable, Pepperdine University, and M4 Strategies, show that in the wake of Proposition 38's ads, support for Gov. Brown's Proposition 30 has slipped below the 50% support level for the first time. Prop. 30, according to the CBRT/Pepperdine Poll, now stands at 49.5% for and 41.7% against and 8.8% unsure.
By contrast, the support for Proposition 38 has remained nearly unchanged, width 41.9% supporting and 45.9% opposing the measure and 12.2% unsure.
The pollsters say the survey has a margin of error of plus/minus 3.4%, based on phone calls made between October 7 and October 10.